Jonathan Sanchez tonight:
6IP 3H 0ER 2BB 10K
Looks like he’ll get the no decision, as the buzzsaw that is Justin Germano shut out the vaunted Giants lineup. Still, not bad, eh?
A few of my favorite “value picks” (I like the move to use this rather than “sleeper”) take the mound these next few days, with Jonathan Sanchez and Justin Duchscherer going today, Dana Eveland going tomorrow, and Edinson Volquez on the hill Sunday. The latter three have received varying amounts of hype recently, with the hum surrounding Volquez reaching a fever pitch over the last two weeks.
At this point on Friday afternoon, Sanchez’ day is already over, with the results being 4IP 7H 2BB and 7(!)ER.
And I’m encouraged. Continue reading ‘Sanchez v. Brewers: Better than you think’
After talking about Jonathan Sanchez late last week, I start off this week with a very similar pitcher. Though Edinson Volquez punishes hitters with his right hand rather than his left, he shares many other things with Sanchez: A repetoire that consists of a 95-mph fastball with movement, an outstanding changeup, and a developing breaking pitch, a penchant for running up high strikeout totals while sometimes struggling with control, and a likely spot in his team’s starting rotation when the season starts.
Also like Sanchez, Volquez comes with a strong scouting pedigree. Ranked the #56 prospect in baseball by Baseball America in 2006, he was valued for his potential as a top-of-the-rotation starter, but largely ignored by many because of a bumpy ‘06 and a future pitching in Texas. It was a deal this offseason that brought him to Cincinnati in return for Josh Hamilton, and though coming to the GAB from Arlington isn’t an improvement, stadium-wise, a move to the NL is certainly an improvement from a fantasy perspective.
Every year, there are hitter that outperform expectations due to trades, lineup changes, better health, or any other of a variety of reasons. A good fantasy manager identifies these players in the pre-season. Here are five guys I think will improve their production this year, specifically in the runs category, along with a prediction of what they can do in a full, healthy season.
- Josh Hamilton - Recent reports have Hamilton slated to bat fourth for the Rangers, behind the trio of Frank Catalanotto/Ian Kinsler, Michael Young, and Milton Bradley. It’s not necessarily a murderer’s row, but for a guy who spent time at EVERY different lineup spot for the Reds last year, a premium slot in the batting order will certainly help the counting stats. For what it’s worth, Hamilton has also said he plans on running a lot more this year, and is killing the ball in Spring Training. Truly a pick with near-unlimited upside.
WTP Prediction: .286/95/34/115/10
Jason and Brett over at Greener on the Other Side have gathered the Playoff Predictions of various fantasy baseball bloggers. Go take a look and make your predictions in the comments.
My predictions and comments:
AL West: Angels - AL West is a cakewalk
AL Central: Tigers - Better offense than Yankees?
AL East: Yankees - East is a battle with four strong teams
Wild Card: Indians - Young and balanced, but pitching takes a step back
NL West: Rockies - Best 2007 run differential in NL
NL Central: Brewers - Strong lineup, a lot of plus pitching options
NL East: Braves - Best run differential in division last year; young hitters improving
Wild Card: Mets - Reds make it a race if Dusty plays Bruce, Cueto, Votto
World Series: Mets over Tigers - Elite pitching will carry Mets through the playoffs
Every year, there are hitter that outperform expectations due to trades, lineup changes, better health, or any other of a variety of reasons. A good fantasy manager identifies these players in the pre-season. Here are five guys I think will improve their production this year, specifically in the runs category, along with a prediction of what they can do in a full, healthy season.
- Michael Bourn - The favorite so far to bat first for the Astros, Bourn combines plate discipline and blazing speed that could make him a prototypical leadoff hitter. A little improvement in contact rate could make him Juan Pierre’s equal, yet he still goes undrafted in mixed leagues.
WTP Prediction: .276/100/1/40/60
Continue reading ‘2008 Sleepers: Runs’
With the news Thursday that Noah Lowry’s injured left hand will require surgery that could keep him out for all of April, another Giants lefty will get a deserved shot at rotation time–Jonathan Sanchez.
Sanchez and Kevin Correia were busy battling it out for San Francisco’s fifth starter spot when Lowry went down. As of now, the two are near-locks for the fourth and fifth starter roles. While Correia is a serviceable pitcher (and probably the better of the two at this point in time), Lowry has upside that ranks him among the most valuable youngsters in the Giants’ system.
Eye-popping is the only way to describe Sanchez’ strikeout numbers over his career, with a 11.9 K/9 in 250+ minor league innings, and over a strikeout an inning in the bigs (10.7 K/9 in ‘07). He’s got a plus fastball that can touch 95, a strong changeup, and an inconsistent slider. His control has held him back in the majors thus far, but he’s kept a BB/9 of 3.5 in the minors, and is still relatively inexperienced at the big league level. So far, that’s meant ugly ERA and WHIP numbers in the bigs, which has hurt his status as a future #2/#3 in many eyes. However, a closer look at those numbers tells a different story.
Here’s a good fantasy story I don’t think people are paying enough attention to.
As of now, Joe Blanton, Rich Harden, and Chad Gaudin are the only locks to start the season in the Athletics rotation. The fact that Rich Harden has “lingering” bicep tendinitis and is, well, Rich Harden, means that it’s pretty likely at least three other guys will be getting significant time starting games for Oakland.
In anticipation of that, Billy Beane has gathered a pretty interesting group of pitchers to battle for rotation spots in spring training. Here’s my opinion on each of these guys, in the order that I like them as a sleeper.
Justin Duchscherer - Duke is one of my favorite sleepers for the 2008 season. We’re talking about a guy with a career 3.44ERA and 1.19WHIP, 7.39K/9 (in the mid 8’s his last two healthy seasons), 2.37BB/9 (2.0 and under last two healthy) and 1.04HR/9 (0.74 and under). Sure, he’s been a reliever his whole career, but I think he’s the type that transition to the rotation well. He’s got four pitches, and he’s always been a guy who can pitch multiple innings. He was an impact starter his entire minor league career as well. I think Duke can step into the rotation and be a 7K/9, 3BB/9, above-average pitcher right away. Continue reading ‘Oakland’s Rotation’
Things might look funny for a little while.
Edit: I’m running the newest K2 theme now, and there’s a lot of changes I like over the old format. Hopefully the text is more readable (I was bothered by the old setup) and you like the new odds and ends. Let me know in the comments. I’ll be customizing over the next couple of days.
Edit: Or months.
I’ve decided it would be fun to follow John Sickels’ “Not A Rookie” series, which focuses on interesting young players who aren’t rookies anymore, but haven’t established themselves yet in the bigs. Here’s the lineup he’s planning on covering so far:
Alex Gordon
Delmon Young
Hunter Pence
Yovani Gallardo
Billy Butler
The first two guys are both very interesting to me personally, and if it strikes my fancy I’ll try to pick some more along the way.
Evaluating these types of players correctly is key in a keeper/dynasty league. Often they are valued very highly because of their young age and upside, and can make or break a team depending on how their careers pan out.
I talked about Alex Gordon a couple of days ago, where I ended up realizing that I’m higher on him in 2008 than most projection systems. Today I’ll take a look at Delmon Young, who Sickels covered yesterday.
